Does Torry Holt have Fantasy Life in Him?

Torry Holt is just such a player for the 2009 season. No one will forget his string of amazing seasons which began with the new century- capped by a 1,700 yard, 12 TD effort in 2003. But equally fresh in the minds of fantasy owners everywhere are his last three seasons, where the actual production never quite matched the expectations. Never more so than 2008, where in 16 games he tallied just 796 yards and 3 TD’s. 

 

Now it is the job of fantasy strategists to answer some questions: Why is Torry Holt struggling? Is he finished as a player or was his poor effort mostly a “victim of circumstance” situation? There is rarely a yes or no answer to these questions for any player- and that applies to Holt as well.

 

Yes, the Rams have been struggling and were bottom dwellers in ’08- winning only two contests and grateful for the Detroit Lions. Yes, Bulger struggled and yes the offensive line was non-existent. And yes, the woes of the Rams were a direct contributor to the woes of Holt.

 

Is Holt the same player he was in 2003? No- he isn’t even the same player he was in 2006. 33 years old is not anyone’s prime. But his 2008 numbers are not a complete indication of the player he can be. Holt is in many ways, the typical wide receiver Diva that has come to dominate the position in the NFL. When his team went south quickly so did his attitude. And his effort. But he still has gas in the tank and can still make some secondary players quake in their cleats.

 

But can he do it in Jacksonville? A grass stadium with a run first, run second style offense? The answer is yes… and no. Yes, he can still be a solid number one. No, he can’t match his best years in that kind of environment. So the short answer is, I expect Holt’s numbers to go up from 2008 but barely cracking the 1,000 yard barrier would seem to be the highest upside available. And on a team that scored 17 rushing TD’s to 15 passing there may not be a ton of scoring opportunity to go around as the air isn’t the preferred method to get there. Will Holt improve on 3 TD’s? I think it’s reasonable to say yes. He might even become a favorite red zone target for Garrard who didn’t have the 2008 he had planned on either. But will Holt see the endzone 10 or more times? I think that would be wishful thinking.

 

Fantasy opinion of Holt is tied directly to fantasy opinion of Garrard. I think Garrard can be a top twelve fantasy QB but that’s at the absolute upside- and I have found few people to agree with me. Will Garrard continue to progress on his 2007 or continue to regress on 2008? Your opinion of Garrard will change your projection for Holt from somewhere between 750 yards and 5 TD’s to 1,100 yards and 9 TD’s. And your opinion of the Jaguars will change your image of Holt from a happy, active, hard working player- to a sulking, disinterested player thinking of retirement. For what it’s worth, I say Garrard bounces back and the Jaguars ride his effort into the playoffs.

 

As bad as Holt’s 2008 may have seemed, his numbers put him at the top of the WR charts for both the Rams and the Jaguars in 2008. He will be the number one there- challenged only by Dennis Northcutt for Garrard’s long range attention. And the development of Lewis at TE can only help the passing game and the overall numbers. And although the Jaguars also struggled in 2008 (5-11), they are just one year removed from the playoffs and are one of the teams who speak of returning to the post-season without sending people into laughing fits. Jacksonville has potential to be good in ’09 and Holt will be part of that. But be prepared for them to do it the Jaguar way- running the ball and controlling the clock, and with hard hitting defense. Holt may never see his former glory again, but he isn’t ready to be put out to pasture.