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Favre: A Familiar Player, A Familiar Question
Someone has to ask the question. And someone has to answer it. You may not want to ask and I may not want to answer, but it’s what we do.
What is Brett Favre’s value as a fantasy QB in 2009 now that he is, in fact, an NFL QB again?
With the Jets in 2008, Favre was an average fantasy producer. Let’s face it- he was a pedestrian NFL QB. For the record, the key 2008 numbers were as follows: 3472 yards passing, 22 TD’s , 22 picks, zero games over 300 yards, and a 65.7% completion rating.
Break those numbers down a little further and we see a week 4 contest with 6 TD’s was a big boost to his overall TD totals. And the final five weeks of the season saw Favre find the endzone only 2 times. In that same time span he was intercepted 9 times and threw under 200 yards twice.
The shoulder injury was surely a factor and until we see how the surgically repaired Farve plays, it still is. He obviously passed a team physical and he reports the shoulder is feeling “pretty good” after work-outs and his first day of practice, but nothing tests an injury like game day. The reports on Favre’s shoulder will be endless so gather all the information you can. If the shoulder is shaky early, it will not hold up to a 16 game schedule.
Assuming Favre is healthy, another question lingers as to how much of his poor play down the stretch in 2008 was due to his age. Did Favre run out of gas as the Jets made a push for the playoffs? Did his poor play have as much to do with his stamina as it did his shoulder?
And what of his infamous decision making? Favre has always been known as a gambler- an all or nothing type player, and has had his best years (as in 2007) when the coaching staff put an emphasis on good decision making. The Jets seemed content to let Favre play his own style and at times the results were downright disastrous. Will the Vikings try to coach him or is Favre now bigger than the team itself? And if he reverts back to his gambler style, can his 40 year old body play that game or will he try to squeeze balls into holes that only his younger self could pull off?
Alas, these are not questions that will be answered before your fantasy draft. So where should Favre land on your draft board?
If you want to keep things simple, separate your projected QB starters and non-starters. Then put Favre in the non-starter column.
Assuming you have a twelve team league or less, Favre simply doesn’t belong in the top twelve fantasy QB’s. As much as you may love the talented rookie Percy Harvin; as much as you may think Adrian Peterson will carry the offense; as much as you may like the domed stadium and Favre’s success there; there are really no factors that support projecting Favre into a starting fantasy slot.
Having said that, Minnesota looks to be an excellent team for Favre to ride off into the sunset with. You could argue that, overall, his new offense is an upgrade. With Peterson leading the way as the home-run threat every QB dreams of, an offensive line that should keep his purple jersey relatively clean, one WR who has proven he can make a big impact, and a rookie across from him who has eye popping numbers in virtually every measure of a rookie- Favre’s numbers should go up simply through the basic laws of NFL success.
And then we have a defense that had the 6th best yards per game average in the league and was top 10 in points per game and total points. That spells decent field position and less pressure to work miracles. The Vikings appeared to be playoff bound in 2009 even without Favre. So he won’t be asked to carry a team to the playoffs- just to guide them. This could also help lower his mistake totals.
As for how much Favre has left in the tank? It’s a fair question, but not one anybody should let stop them from selecting the future hall of famer if they are in the mood to gamble on their back-up fantasy QB. It was more injury than age that hurt Favre down the stretch in 2008 and no one can seriously question his guts and effort when it comes to playing football. This is a guy who has never missed an NFL start and who has been living clean and healthy for over 5 years.
A 40 year old can’t do what a 27 year old can- that’s a fact. But Favre won’t need a cane to play 30 minutes of football once a week either. He’s in shape and has started playing football every fall for the last 30 years. Favre has always had one of the strongest arms in the NFL. So even at his age, it’s more than strong enough to hit a streaking WR in stride.
To give a rough idea where I think Favre can reach in 2009- I can see 3,500 yards, 25 TD’s, and expect the interceptions to fall to a more workable 15 if all things go well. That should make him a serviceable fantasy back-up. I could see myself taking a chance on him if I already have a solid number one. I will pass on Favre if a player like Carson Palmer is still available, but take him ahead of the likes of Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, and Matt Hasselbeck who I’m not interested in for various reasons. And if you believe in fairy tale endings- or even if you’re just a Vikings fan- having him on the roster could be just plain fun.
