Much Ado About Nothing- Cutler Joins the Bears

But who is Jay Cutler? Is he the answer for the QB woes in the windy city? 

 

Not every player in Chicago seems to think so. Upon hearing news of the trade, LB Brian Urlacher said, “They gave up a lot. Cutler must be pretty good.” Hardly a ringing endorsement. It’s hard to imagine Urlacher saying the same thing if the deal had been made for Peyton Manning. It’s likely that Urlacher knows exactly how good Cutler is- and he is not impressed.

 

And why should he be? In 2008, Cutler finished with a pedestrian 86.0 quarterback rating- good enough to land him squarely in the middle of the QB pack. His 4583 passing yards 3^rd best in the league- but that was accomplished with only a 14^th best 62.3 completion percentage, and the second worst interception total in the league (18). Only Drew Brees threw more than Cutler’s 616 passes, and for his 19 more total passes- Brees compiled 9 more TD’s, one less pick, and nearly 500 more yards than Cutler managed. And it’s worth mentioning that this all happened while Cutler was playing with a significantly better group of receivers than what he will have in Chicago. Some looked at 2008 as Cutler’s break out year- but if it was- he didn’t become everything the Broncos thought he would be when he was drafted.

 

But the point of this article isn’t to convince you that Cutler stinks. He doesn’t. He is an NFL caliber QB. For the Bears, it appears to be an upgrade at the position- so that’s a positive. But there is a danger that all the hype over the move will cause some fantasy owners to imagine that Cutler is something that he isn’t. He isn’t a player worth two first round picks, a third, and a serviceable QB. He isn’t a player that a team can rally around. He isn’t the answer to Chicago’s championship dreams. And he isn’t a top five fantasy QB. He was in 2008- but he won’t be in 2009.

 

Although it is possible for a hard working QB to improve himself in his fourth year in the league- Cutler doesn’t have that reputation. Add in the drop off in receiving talent from the Broncos to the Bears- and that is enough to downgrade Cutler out of the top ten. Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal were a luxury Cutler doesn’t have in Chicago- who currently offer the likes of Devon Hester and Rashied Davis as the starting wide-outs. Owners also have to consider that the offense in Chicago in more conservative- and the elements are as nasty as you’ll find at any NFL stadium. The running game in Chicago is coming along with Matt Forte and a building offensive line- but still doesn’t compare to the powerful, wide open running attack in Denver. Can you hear Cutler’s numbers dropping? Seriously, the writing is on the wall.

 

I’ve never been overly impressed with Cutler- 4, 500 yards or not. He’s got a great arm- and a high level of competitiveness, but struggles against good defensive game plans and wilts under adverse conditions. I haven’t ever watched a game Cutler was playing and said, “Wow, Cutler really engineered a great drive there.” About the best thing I can say for Cutler as a Bear is that he will get to play the Lions twice- lately the antidote for ailing stats. I think Cutler is an average QB who has benefited from a solid supporting cast and wide open system, and he has a wake up call coming in his new home. Unless the Bears make a major roster addition, I predict Cutler will find it difficult to get much more than 3,200 yards and 20 TD’s- and I suggest you adjust your draft board accordingly.