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Rookie Fantasy Evaluation
Rookies are always a gamble when it comes to fantasy football. Some of college football’s biggest names and brightest stars have fizzled into obscurity after getting a shot on the big stage. And some players who eventually make a name for themselves in the NFL still struggle in that difficult first year. It’s rare that a rookie becomes a league leader in his first season.
Still, ignoring rookies can be just as dangerous. Some players are drafted to start immediately- and that means fantasy scoring opportunity. If they aren’t getting those points for your team, that means they are getting them for your opponent.
So let’s take a look at the first seven skill position players selected this past April- and with a cautious optimism- let’s try to predict their fantasy value.
Matthew Stafford- QB- Lions. Drafted number one overall- there is almost nothing not to like about Stafford and his chances for NFL success. Almost nothing. He is playing in Detroit- which means a long, tough stretch in turning a league laughing stock into a contender. And his occasional inconsistency and poor decision making in college could mean disastrous numbers while he learns at the faster, more disciplined NFL level. There is some reason for hope though- including one of the league’s best, young wide receivers and a rookie TE who could be a superstar in freshman clothing. Chances are Stafford will sit for the first half of the season and make his debut after the Lions have lost some games and no one cares how badly he plays. So I wouldn’t put Stafford on my draft board.
Mark Sanchez- QB- Jets. Bottom line- Sanchez is another work in progress. Perhaps more NFL ready than Stafford, Sanchez may not be an opening day starter and history says that even the great QB’s don’t generate eye popping numbers in their first years. Sanchez is smart, and a good leader, but his learning curve will be analyzed to death in the Big Apple. He doesn’t really belong on a fantasy draft board.
Darrius Heyward-Bey- WR- Raiders. The Raiders have become so predictable, it’s just sad. Heyward-Bey is a flat out burner- but little else is known about his ability to compete at the NFL level. Of course this was enough for Al Davis to order him taken with the Raiders critical first selection. From a fantasy perspective, too little is known about the Oakland offense to gamble on Darrius. Will Russell elevate his play? Will Garcia supplant Russell, and does he have anything left if he does? Can this team get it together and get back on track? There are better situations and better rookie WR’s to take a gamble on in 2009.
Michael Crabtree- WR- San Francisco. Crabtree was the player expected to go first when a team got around to drafting a wide receiver, but Oakland changed things around. So the Niners got lucky and grabbed the one college receiver who appeared worthy of a mid-round fantasy selection. Only problem is he went to a team with big, big questions at QB. One that plans to simplify the offense- which means run a lot. Still, Crabtree is built as if the heavens above wanted him catching touchdowns- and he’s smart enough to pick things up quickly and make an immediate impact. I expect Crabtree to finish the season in the top 50 WR’s- so consider that when forming a draft board.
Knowshon Moreno- RB- Denver. If I had to put a rookie on my 2009 fantasy team, Moreno would be the one. Although Denver looks poised to run the ball by committee, any of the RB’s there could move to the front of the pack with a solid game. The phrase “total package” is over-used in sports, but Moreno is an excellent combination of size, strength, and speed. He could really flourish in the Bronco’s system. If he gets signed and gets on the good side of the coaches, I can see him as a top twenty fantasy RB. Worst case- he should score enough to be serviceable.
Jeremy Maclin- WR- Eagles. Maclin is a top notch prospect and a fine selection at 19 overall. Still, the Eagles WR stables are getting crowded and there is no telling where Maclin will fit in for the 2009 season. Expect a slow start, but more involvement by mid-year as coaches and QB alike fall in love with his speed and ball catching skills. McNabb had a great year in 2008 and the chemistry that develops between these two will have everything to do with how good a rookie season Maclin has.
Brandon Pettigrew- TE- Lions. I love this kid and he plays a position that isn’t always easy to fill in fantasy football. Yes, the Lions will struggle offensively, but TE can be a security blanket for QB’s under pressure. Keep that in mind. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the starting TE in Detroit rival Johnson for most catches in 2009. I project Pettigrew higher than most and might even take a chance on him with a late round flyer. If I don’t draft him, I will certainly be watching him in the first few weeks. Several catches- even if the numbers aren’t big- could mean a TE on the rise. He has all the talent to be a Gonzalez/Gates type player.
