Tony Gonzalez- New Home, Same Great Player

Tony Gonzalez is leaving the only NFL home he’s ever known- and heading for greener pastures. Goodbye 2-14 Chiefs, hello 11-5 Atlanta Falcons- who come complete with one of the NFL’s fastest rising stars, QB Matt Ryan.

 

Will Gonzalez fare better in Atlanta? The obvious answer would seem to be yes- but where is there to go for the Hall of Famer? After all, Tony was the top fantasy tight end in most scoring systems in 2008- hauling in 10 TD’s as he compiled 1,058 yards with 96 receptions. So although he moves from a flat offense to a powerful, emerging one- can a fantasy owner really expect to see those numbers improve? Is it even possible that- with all the other talent around him now- Gonzalez may see his numbers go down?

 

Of course, anything is possible- but what’s most likely is that the best tight end in the game will remain the best tight end in the game- and selecting him as the top tight end in 2009 fantasy drafts will be a wise decision.

 

Gonzalez was the only TE to top 1,000 yards in 2008. He was also the only one to find the endzone to the tune of double digit numbers. This almost puts an exclamation point on the end of the conversation. But since we’re here- let’s go a little deeper.

 

At this admittedly early stage of the game (we’re writing in July ’09)- there are really just a few TE’s who should be placed in the category as Gonzalez- Antonio Gates of the Chargers, Jason Witten of the Cowboys, and possibly Kellen Winslow of the Bucs. It isn’t that there are no other talented TE’s in the league- there are. But these are the names that have proven they have the potential to post top WR type numbers- and will generally be the TE’s the other owners in your league are considering with their top TE selection.

 

If you’re looking for reasons to talk yourself out of taking Gonzalez, here are a few. Although he posted big numbers with a terrible team- it was the lack of talent in Kansas City that forced the offense to rely on him so much. With the awesome running game in Atlanta (Turner and Norwood), and the presence of stud WR Roddy White and quality WR Mike Jenkins- they won’t be forcing Tony the ball. Good for an offense- but not always for fantasy football. In 2008, Kansas City actually passed the ball over 100 more times than the Falcons. And with the running game in Atlanta- passing isn’t usually the first or second option around the goal line. In addition, any player entering his 14^th year will face questions like “How long can he perform at this level?” or “Can I count on him for a full season?”

 

As far as his age goes- I would say not to worry- Tony only missed 2 games. Oh, not last season- in his entire 13 year career! Tony is built to last- and seems to have a limitless gas tank. 2009 is certainly not the year to start worrying about his health and production. Wait until you have a reason.

 

And as far as his new team mates taking opportunity, yes, it will happen. But it’s still hard to not like Gonzalez in his new home. Matt Ryan had a stellar rookie year- finishing with an 87.7 QB rating, 3,440 yards, and a trip to the playoffs. And a TE can quickly become a favorite of a young QB- particularly one heading for the Hall Of Fame five years after he retires. Once Ryan realizes that no linebacker in the league can cover Gonzalez- he’ll look to his new TE early and often. As long as this team keeps a nice balance, and no one creates a conflict- Gonzalez will thrive in the ATL- and the Falcons having 2 receivers topping 1,000 yards is a very likely outcome. And beyond just personal stats- Atlanta made an addition that could get their overall offense numbers into the top 5 in the league.

 

TE is not always an easy position to find a big impact player in the fantasy world. Gonzalez has been that TE virtually his entire career. He will be extremely happy to be spending the end of his career with a contender- and the offense appears to be such a good fit that Tony may post the best numbers in the twilight of his career. But when it comes to fantasy in 2009, why select Gates with his injury concerns, Witten without knowing the impact of losing T.O., or Winslow when he hasn’t shown even a fraction of the consistency- ahead of the proven leader of the pack? Tony is the number one fantasy TE until someone pushes him off the throne.