What’s Past is Prologue- Lessons from the 2009 Pre-Season

Week 4 in the pre-season is little more than an audition for third-string players. Those who perform well make a roster. Those who don’t will be looking for work. But precious few of those who play in this final pre-season week will be on anyone’s fantasy roster. So with Week 4 upon us, let’s look at some of the things we learned from pre-season ’09.

• Newsflash- Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner are still awesome. The likely one and two picks in many fantasy drafts are 2 and 3 respectively in pre-season rushing yardage – and that’s with fewer preseason carries than fifteen other backs in the league. Peterson’s big play against the Texans has fantasy owners clambering for that top pick.
• Brett Favre knows how to play QB. Despite the "experts' over-analyzing of Brett’s brief pre-season performances, the bottom line is that we know what we always knew- he can read a defense and throw a football.
• Ahmad Bradshaw entrenched himself into the committee backfield in New York and performed well enough to keep Brandon Jacobs off the top five fantasy RB list. His 6.3 yards per carry on 19 handoffs will not go unnoticed. Double digit carry average in ’09? Yeah- it’s possible. But even if 6 or 7 touches is more realistic, Bradshaw could be a top 25 fantasy back.
• Owners will continue to have to know how to spell Houshmandzadeh for at least another year. T.J. is fitting in just fine in Seattle- collecting 11 receptions for 106 yards in limited duty. T.J. was always satisfied trading production for the spotlight. Now he can have both. He’s going to be a number one for some fantasy team- definitely a top twelve prospect.
• Brady is back. The quiet MVP from Beantown very quietly passed his pre-season post-injury test to the tune of a 106 QB rating with 4 TD’s and a 62% completion percentage. He erased any reasons you may have had for not putting him at the top of your QB list- including coming back strong from a sore shoulder.
• The Detroit Lions will not win the Super Bowl.
• Cadillac Williams will not quietly go to the back of the line of the three-headed monster the Buccaneers  have at running back. I don’t know if his 8 total carries with a 6.8 yard average was enough to move him up on anyone’s draft board, but it was enough for me to move Graham and Ward down on mine. He’s too talented for the coaches to let sit very long and I think Williams is becoming a bigger and bigger part of the plans in Tampa Bay.
• Leon Washington is a running back for the New York Jets. I tell you this just in case- like their coaches- you didn’t know. Once again, Washington showed he has serious NFL talent. 119 yards on 19 carries was one of the best pre-season efforts in ’09. Thomas Jones who had 61 yards on 21 carries will still be the focus of Jets' coaches. The danger in rating Jones too high is that someone- somewhere- some day- might wake up and realize the talent they have on the bench. And Jones will lose carries as a result.
• While T.J. Who’sYourMomma is getting used to Seattle, Chris Henry seems poised to fill his shoes in Cincinnati. His 217 yards are the 2^nd best pre-season effort so far. His three TD’s are number one. His 13 catches a mere fourth best. Ocho- who? Henry isn’t looking to be anyone’s number two man.
• The Eagles will be offering another year of drama and side shows. It’s hard to figure Vick as a fantasy factor, but his Jersey is the second best selling in ’09- behind Favre. McNabb seems to have a fragile ego as it is. How will he react when the home crowd starts calling for number 7? Worse- how will he react if Reid starts putting in packages that feature Vick?
• The little injuries to Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, etc reminds all of us to have a solid bench- you will need them. It’s not a matter of if, it’s when. If one of your starters has a history of injury…